A ‘warmer spring’ for cross-strait ties? Taiwan opposition leader talks up visit to Beijing

TAIPEI – The chair of Taiwan’s main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), Ms Cheng Li-wun, has “gladly accepted” an invitation from Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit China in April – which will mark the first such trip by a sitting KMT leader in a decade.

At a press conference in Taipei on March 30, Ms Cheng said that she hoped the six-day visit would be a “successful first step to future lasting peace across the Taiwan Strait”.

“The Taiwan Strait has been described by international media as ‘one of the most dangerous places in the world’, and we hope that the visit in April will usher in a warmer spring for cross-strait relations,” she said.

“Cross-strait peace is not only Taiwan’s expectation, but also the highest expectation of the mainland,” she added.

Cross-strait relations have deteriorated in the 10 years of rule by the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), following eight years of stability under the Beijing-friendly KMT. Analysts say Ms Cheng is banking on the party’s proven ability to foster warmer cross-strait ties to win back the presidency in 2028.

Chinese state news agency Xinhua said Ms Cheng would visit from April 7 to 12, when she will make stops in the eastern province of Jiangsu before heading to Shanghai and Beijing.

While a formal itinerary has yet to be finalised, all eyes will be on whether she secures a meeting with Mr Xi.

According to Mr William Yang, a Taipei-based senior North-east Asia analyst at International Crisis Group, the sequence of the stops that China laid out in the official read-out provides a clue.

“With Beijing being the last stop, the Communist Party will likely try to gauge and assess the rhetoric and remarks that Cheng makes throughout the trip and decide whether Xi will roll out the red carpet to meet her,” he said.

Nonetheless, the invitation alone is widely interpreted to be a positive sign from Beijing.

“By officially inviting Cheng to Beijing, Xi and the Chinese government signal that they approve of the China-friendly rhetoric and approach that Cheng has prioritised since becoming chairwoman of the KMT (in October),” said Mr Yang.

Beijing, which views self-ruled Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out the use of force to “reunify” with it, refuses to speak to the government of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, whom it labels a “dangerous separatist”.

But China regularly welcomes senior officials from the KMT, which advocates cross-strait dialogue based on the so-called “1992 Consensus”, a tacit agreement that the two sides of the strait belong to “one China”. This framework, which Beijing sees as the basis for cross-strait interaction, is rejected by Mr Lai and the ruling DPP.

At the press conference, Ms Cheng said: “Continuing on the basis of adhering to the ‘1992 Consensus’ and opposing Taiwan independence, we want to prove to the people of Taiwan and the world one thing – the two sides of the strait are not destined for war, and there is no need for conflict.”

Since the 56-year-old was elected as KMT chair, she has consistently expressed her desire to meet Mr Xi to build mutual trust and ensure “peaceful development”.

In pushing for such a meeting, Ms Cheng dismissed critics who say that her push for closer relations with China comes at the expense of Taiwan’s ties with the US, which is the island’s main arms provider.

At a separate press briefing with foreign media on March 23, which The Straits Times attended, Ms Cheng argued that Taiwan’s relations with China and the US are not a zero-sum game.

“The KMT has long had very good relations with the US, and this does not affect our desire to improve relations with the mainland,” she said. “There is no contradiction between the two, and there is no need to choose one over the other.”

Assistant Professor James Chen, a cross-strait relations expert at Taiwan’s Tamkang University, told ST that Ms Cheng is trying to present herself as the only politician in Taiwan who is capable of restoring direct dialogue with Beijing to ensure the island’s stability.

This is in contrast to Mr Lai, whose cross-strait approach focuses on the idea that peace is based on strength, featuring military readiness and international partnerships.

“The question is what the Taiwanese public think of her approach,” said Prof Chen, who noted that a potential meeting between Ms Cheng and Mr Xi could trigger a voter backlash in Taiwan’s municipal elections in November.

“Swing voters in Taiwan will watch closely to see whether Cheng is moving too close to Beijing,” he said.

“The Lai administration and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party are more than ready to accuse Cheng and the KMT of being pro-China and compromising Taiwan’s security,” he added.

Even if Ms Cheng does not end up meeting Mr Xi, Prof Chen said that Beijing would likely grant her some concessions currently denied to Mr Lai, following the trip.

This could be in the form of the reopening of cross-strait tourism, or a lifting of the ban on Chinese students from enrolling in Taiwanese universities, which has been in place since 2020, said Prof Chen.

“If that happens, she will say that only she and the KMT are able to secure peace and prosperity for the Taiwanese people,” he said, noting that this is important for her to distinguish her party from the DPP and lead the KMT to victory in the 2028 presidential election.